Despite terrible news of hurricane Ian in Florida this week, the good news is that hurricanes in Florida have become steadily less prevalent in Florida over the past 170 years, and that trend continues.
More and more media and climate alarmists have been claiming that hurricanes are getting, or going to get, more powerful due to human production of CO2, but this statement is not supported by any actual data, and is based purely on speculation using computer models that are known to have numerous flaws. Even the notoriously alarmist IPCC states in its most recent AR6 report that there is only “limited evidence for anthropogenic effects on TC intensifications” (Chapter 11, Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, 11.7.1.4). Indeed most studies have concluded the opposite. See for example Klotzbach and Landsea (2015) which states, “Large, significant downward trends are present in accumulated cyclone energy [i.e. hurricane strength] in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, and globally.” Or Vecchi et al (2021) which concluded that over the past century, there is no discernible increase in the ratio of major (Category 3 to 5) hurricanes to all hurricanes in the North Atlantic notwithstanding a recent 50-year increase: “Our results indicate that the recent increase in NA basin-wide MH/HU ratio or MH frequency is not part of a century-scale increase. Rather it is a rebound from a deep local minimum in the 1960s–1980s,” and indeed the authors hypothesize that the “recent increases contain a substantial, even dominant, contribution from internal climate variability, and/or late-20th century aerosol increases and subsequent decreases…”
Glad to be the bearer of good news!
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