Hurricanes continue downtrend in number and power

As the media continues to trumpet the false narrative that climate change is causing an increase in number of hurricanes and hurricane power, the data continues to say the exact opposite.

Indeed, the downward trend is quite consistent over different timescales. Looking at data from the last 250 years or the past 50 years show the same thing: hurricanes are getting fewer in number, and waning in intensity both here in North America and globally. Given that the world has warmed approximately 1.6ºC since 1750 (near the low point of the Little Ice Age), the overall decrease in hurricane activity and strength is to be expected because of the correspondingly smaller temperature differential between the poles and the equator.

Researchers from the National University of Mexico documented hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea from 1749 through 2012 and concluded that the linear downward trend is 0.778 fewer hurricanes per year. Rojo-Garibaldi et al (2016).

We recently discussed here that global major hurricane frequency has been declining for the last 40 years (see Hurricane frequency continues its 40-year DECLINE).

Hurricane expert Ryan Maue also provides the clear data showing that total energy of hurricanes (also known as tropical cyclones), both globally and in the northern hemisphere, is slightly declining over the last 50 years and dramatically declining over the last 30 years.

None of these clear facts, however, stop climate alarmists from continually attempting to misrepresent the exact opposite.

A great example of such an alarmist is Don Lemon who on September 27, 2022 attempted to bully a weather reporter in to admitting that climate change is responsible for the severity of hurricane Ian. Don apparently does not understand the difference between weather and climate, even though the badgered weather reporter (National Hurricane Center Acting Director Jamie Rohme) tried unsuccessfully to educate him. Watch the video clip below.

Here’s the transcript:

Lemon: Can you tell us what this is and what effect the climate change has on this phenomenon?

Rohme: Well, we can come back and talk about climate change at a later time, I want to focus on the here and now [details about hurricane Ian]…

Lemon: Ah, listen I’m just trying to get that you said that you want to talk about climate change, but what effect has climate change had on this phenomenon that is happening now, because it seems these storms are intensifying that’s the question?

Rohme: I don’t think you can link climate change to any one event. On the whole, on the cumulative, climate change may be making storms worse, but to link it to any one event, I would caution against that.

Lemon: Okay, well listen, I grew up there and these storms are intensifying something is causing them to intensify…

If you are tired of climate alarmism about hurricanes, check out @RyanMaue on Twitter and on the web. He is always a great source of real scientific information as opposed to propaganda.

Hurricane frequency continues its 40-year DECLINE

The latest data from hurricane (aka “tropical cyclone”) expert Ryan Maue continue to show a steady decline in global hurricane activity despite the alleged tiny increase in “global mean surface temperature” (a fiction of the “consensus” crowd of anti-scientists) over the past 40 years. The upper line is all hurricanes (winds at or above 64 knots) and shows a statistically significant and fairly steady decline in numbers. The lower line, showing major hurricanes (winds at or above 96 knots) is fairly flat overall with a notable spike in the 2015-16 season. All of this is of course much to the chagrin of the climate alarmists (aka liars from the anti-science crowd) who keep shouting from the rooftops and all the corporate media that “climate change” is causing massive increases in “extreme weather,” all the while when nearly every measure of “extreme weather” continues to decline or stay the same.

Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) — 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.

For more real science see Dr. Ryan N. Maue’s Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and follow him on Twitter @RyanMaue.

No climate-related risks caused by CO2 production or fossil fuel use

Real science demonstrates there is no climate emergency and there are no climate-related financial or other risks caused by fossil fuels and CO2.

Happer & Lindzen

In their response to a “Request for Information on Climate-Related Financial Risk” Fed. Reg. 34856 (July 21,2022), world renowned scientists William Happer (Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University) and Richard Lindzen (Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) made it plain that not only is there no financial risk to fossil fuel use or CO2 production, but on the contrary it will be “disastrous” if fossil fuel and CO2 production is reduced to zero.


August 8, 2022

We (Happer and Lindzen) are career physicists who have specialized in radiation physics and dynamic heat transfer for decades.

In our scientific opinion, there is no scientific basis for the CFTC inquiry. Real science demonstrates there is no climate emergency and there are no climate-related financial or other risks caused by fossil fuels and CO2.

Frankly, the “science” cited to support of the CFTC inquiry and possible action is merely government opinion by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the U.S. Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP), which is not science and cannot be used as the scientific basis for any CFTC or other government action.

Moreover, there will be a disastrous transition risk for the poor, people worldwide, future generations and the country by reducing fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions to “net zero.” Contrary to what is commonly reported, CO2 is essential to life on earth. Without CO2, there would be no photosynthesis, and thus no plant food. Reducing CO2 will reduce the amount of food available for the poor and people worldwide.

And, without fossil fuels there will be no low-cost energy worldwide and less CO2 for photosynthesis making food.

Thus, with all due respect, the Commission should not adopt any guidance, interpretations, policy statements, or regulations, or take other action on the erroneous science there is a climate-related financial or any other risk caused by fossil fuels and CO2. If any such action is taken, it should be ruled invalid by the courts.

Here’s the science why… [See entire response here]

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