Is climate change the culprit causing California’s wildfires?

Once again…climate change is not causing wildfires. Wildfires are down dramatically from the 1930s, and the small recent increase is due to forest management policies NOT climate change.

Climate Etc.

by Larry Kummer

We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications.

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A veneer of certainty stoking climate alarm

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

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New Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction

Climate Audit

Stenni et al (2017), Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, was published pdf this week by Climate of the Past.  It includes (multiple variations) of a new Antarctic temperature reconstruction, in which 112 d18O and dD isotope series are combined into regional and continental reconstructions. Its abstract warns that “projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts  of the Antarctic continent [besides the peninsula]”, but no Steigian red spots of supposedly unprecedented warming.

Long-time CA readers will be aware of my long-standing interest in Antarctic ice core proxies, in particular, the highly resolved Law Dome  d18O series.  One of my first appearances in Climategate emails was a request for Law Dome data to Tas van Ommen in Australia, who immediately notified Phil Jones in Sauron’s Tower of this disturbance in the equilibrium of…

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Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations

Climate Audit

Two very different representations of consistency between models and observations are popularly circulated. On the one hand, John Christy and Roy Spencer have frequently shown a graphic which purports to show a marked discrepancy between models and observations in tropical mid-troposphere, while, on the other hand, Zeke Hausfather, among others, have shown graphics which purport to show no discrepancy whatever between models and observations.  I’ve commented on this topic on a number of occasions over the years, including two posts discussing AR5 graphics (here, here) with an update comparison in 2016 (here) and in 2017 (tweet).

There are several moving parts in such comparisons: troposphere or surface, tropical or global. Choice of reference period affects the rhetorical impression of time series plots.  Boxplot comparisons of trends avoids this problem. I’ve presented such boxplots in the past and update for today’s post.

I’ll also…

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Steve Koonin: A Deceptive New Report on Climate

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.

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Stanford Prof sues scientists who debunked him – demands $10M

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Mannian litigation gone wild. — Steve McIntyre

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Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

Climate Etc.

by Ross McKitrick

A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative carbon emissions since 1870.

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