New paper highlights huge flaws in IPCC methods and conclusions

A new paper by renowned climate scientist Willie Soon, and 24 others points out huge flaws in the politically driven conclusions of the IPCC’s climate propaganda. “How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate” is a 71-page paper by 25 renowned scientists that contains 536 references and concludes that

By reviewing the literature and available data, we identified 16 different estimates of how the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has varied since the 19th century (and earlier) – see Table 1 and Figures 2 and 3. Although some of these estimates are very similar to each other, others imply quite different trends and hence can lead to different conclusions. The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) appears to have tried to overcome this problem by ignoring those datasets that give conflicting results. Worryingly, from reading Matthes et al. (2017), it appears that the CMIP6 modelling groups have been actively encouraged to consider only one estimate of TSI for the 1850-present period, i.e., the Matthes et al. (2017) dataset [110]. In terms of scientific objectivity, this seems to us to have been an approach that is not compatible with the results already published in the scientific literature and even unwise relative to the results highlighted by this paper and of other recently published works.

Connolly et al. (2022), pp. 55-56

The paper makes a number of specific recommendations to scientific researchers and closes with:

“Given the many valid dissenting scientific opinions that remain on these issues, we argue that recent attempts to force an apparent scientific consensus (including the IPCC reports) on these scientific debates are premature and ultimately unhelpful for scientific progress.”

Connolly, p. 57

Math Deniers Promulgate Heatwave Nonsense

Hysterical and completely obvious climate nonsense continues throughout the fake media with the latest being evidence-free reports such as the hysterical opinion Another Step Toward Climate Apocalypse by non-reporter Paul Krugman and NYT headline writers on July 4, 2022 in the sad but once-venerated New York Times stating that a statistically perfectly normal heat wave signals that “Climate change is already doing immense damage, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we experience huge catastrophes that take thousands of lives.”

Contrary to Krugman’s non-report, the temperatures experienced in the north of Norway are perfectly normal according to publicly available data from the World Meteorological Organization.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/gdcntmax.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=NO000001026&STATION=TROMSO

See the excellent article Norway Heatwaves Are Perfectly Normal, Despite What Paul Krugman Says (by Paul Homewood, July 5, 2022, Watts Up With That?, reblogged from Not a Lot of People Know That).

PAGES 2019: 0-30N Proxies

More great data analysis from Stephen McIntyre. How does Michael Mann even get away with masquerading as a scientist? His work over the years has been so massively flawed in so many fundamental ways!

Climate Audit

Next, the PAGES2019 0-30N latband. Their CPS reconstruction (CPS) for the 0-30N latband (extracted from the global reconstruction) looks almost exactly the same as reconstructions for the 0-30S and 30-60S latbands. However, none of the actual proxies in this latband look remotely like the latband reconstruction, as I’ll show below. In the course of examining the proxies in this latband, I looked back at 0-30N latband in prior PAGES compilations (2013 and 2017) and Mann et al 2008. The evolution of the proxy network is quite fascinating: the most notable feature is the increasing dominance of short (1-200 year) coral series in a network supposedly reconstructing the past 2000 years.

PAGES2019 Proxies with Values Prior to AD1200

The primary purpose of “2000 year” proxy reconstructions of temperature is to compare modern temperature to estimates of medieval and first millennium temperatures. There are 41 proxies in the 0-30N network, but only…

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PAGES19: 0-30S

Climate Audit

In a Climategate email. Keith Briffa famously sneered at Michael Mann’s claim that a temperature reconstruction could represent a hemisphere, including the tropics, by regressing a “few poorly temperature respresentative tropical series” against “any other target series” – even the trend of Mann’s own “self-opinionated verbiage” as follows:

I am sick to death of Mann stating his reconstruction represents the tropical area just because it contains a few (poorly temperature representative ) tropical series. He is just as capable of regressing these data again any other “target” series , such as the increasing trend of self-opinionated verbage he has produced over the last few years , and … (better say no more)

People frequently say that the PAGES2K reconstruction has “vindicated” Mannian reconstructions – but neglect to mention that PAGES2K similarly regressed a “few poorly temperature representative tropical series” onto an increasing trend – thus, repeating, rather than vindicating, (one…

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The IPCC’s attribution methodology is fundamentally flawed

Reblogged from judithcurry.com

Posted on August 18, 2021 by curryja | 29 Comments

by Ross McKitrick

One day after the IPCC released the AR6 I published a paper in Climate Dynamics showing that their “Optimal Fingerprinting” methodology on which they have long relied for attributing climate change to greenhouse gases is seriously flawed and its results are unreliable and largely meaningless. Some of the errors would be obvious to anyone trained in regression analysis, and the fact that they went unnoticed for 20 years despite the method being so heavily used does not reflect well on climatology as an empirical discipline.

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The IPCC AR6 Hockeystick

Climate Audit

Although climate scientists keep telling that defects in their “hockey stick” proxy reconstructions don’t matter – that it doesn’t matter whether they use data upside down, that it doesn’t matter if they cherry pick individual series depending on whether they go up in the 20th century, that it doesn’t matter if they discard series that don’t go the “right” way (“hide the decline”), that it doesn’t matter if they used contaminated data or stripbark bristlecones, that such errors don’t matter because the hockey stick itself doesn’t matter – the IPCC remains addicted to hockey sticks: lo and behold, Figure 1a of its newly minted Summary for Policy-makers contains what else – a hockey stick diagram. If you thought Michael Mann’s hockey stick was bad, imagine a woke hockey stick by woke climate scientists. As the climate scientists say, it’s even worse that we thought.

Curiously, this leading diagram of the…

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Collapse of the fake consensus on Covid-19 origins

“What is concerning about this episode is not so much that a consensus has been overturned, but that a fake consensus was so easily enforced for year. This occurred during a key period when understanding the origins of the virus had implications for how it could best be fought. Scientists who understood that there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the origins of the virus did not speak up. Probity came from knowledgeable individuals that were outside of the field of virology.”

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a ‘consensus’ on Covid-19 origins.

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How we fool ourselves. Part II: Scientific consensus building

Consensus is NOT science

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

“Like a magnetic field that pulls iron filings into alignment, a powerful cultural belief is aligning multiple sources of scientific bias in the same direction. – policy scientist Daniel Sarewitz

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The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update

Sweden’s COVID strategy worked better…

Climate Etc.

By Nic Lewis

I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed.

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Climate science and the Supreme Court

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

An alternative assessment of U.S. Supreme Court Justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett’s statements on climate change.

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