Measuring bias in the U.S. federally-funded climate research

Climate Etc.

by David Wojick

Semantic analysis of U.S. Federal budget documents indicates that the climate science research budget is heavily biased in favor of the paradigm of human-induced climate change.

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Introducing the global-warming exaggeration factor X

Watts Up With That?

climate-x-factor

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Recently I provided – based on a characteristically interesting email from Roger Taguchi – a demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity. In this follow-up piece, will you please welcome the global-warming exaggeration factor X.

First, a breathless recap on my summary of Roger’s argument. Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4), while CO2 concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv (NCEI). Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO2 concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K. Even if CO2 were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60 = 1.38. Then, since nearly all temperature feedbacks are short-acting, at doubled CO2 concentration and after all feedbacks had acted, equilibrium sensitivity ΔTeq would be only 0.312 x 5.35 ln…

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Virtually indistinguishable – Comparing early 20th Century warming to late 20th Century warming

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

Many writers, including Professor Richard Lindzen and Ed Caryl have noticed the remarkable similarity in global warming observed from around 1910 to 1944 and 1975 to 2009. The similarity in slopes exists in all global surface temperature datasets. Figure 1 shows the HadCRUT version 4 dataset and the NASA GISS land (GHCN v3) and ocean (ERSST v4) temperature dataset. We’ve identified the two periods of interest on the figure. All datasets also show some cooling between 1945 and 1975.

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Figure 1

Figure 2 shows the two periods overlain with data from the HadCRUT version 4 dataset. This display is scaled to actual average temperature. Unlike Figure one this figure and the next one use smoothed monthly data. In that way, we can see some of the variation within each year.

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Figure 2

The left side of Figure 2 represents 1910 for the blue line…

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Big Chill: ‘Substantial Cooling’ Predicted Within The Next Few Years

Watts Up With That?

La Niña expected to contribute

From the Daily Star, 14 August 2016

Climate boffins believe the UK’s topsy-turvy climate is in for a chilly twist within the next few years as three major forms of climate change trigger “substantial cooling”.

lan-nina-forecast
Drastic changes in ocean conditions, greenhouse gases and a weakening of the sun threaten increasingly worsening winters of blistering blizzards and severe snowstorms for years to come.
This cocktail of climate threats, paired with “hasty climate policies”, could mean “rolling blackouts” in the UK over the next few years, plunging the country into long period of darkness.
These “worse case scenario” climate threats will hit the elderly hardest, leaving “some pensioners alone in the dark” on a freezing nights resigned to a “lonely death”.

An intense La Nina weather front could wreak havoc on the UK’s climate, photo Getty

It is thought these will be brought about for the most…

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Esper et al 2016 and the Oroko Swamp

Climate Audit

Jan Esper, prominent in early Climate Audit posts as an adamant serial non-archiver, has joined with 17 other tree ring specialists, to publish “Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium” (pdf). This assesses 39 long tree ring temperature reconstructions. The assessment is accompanied by an archive containing 39 reconstruction versions, together with the underlying measurement data for 33 of 39 reconstructions. (It seems odd that measurement data would continue to be withheld for six sites, but, hey, it’s climate science.)

Because I’ve been recently looking at data used in Gergis et al, I looked first at Esper’s consideration of Oroko, one of two long proxies retained in Gergis screening.  I’ve long sought Oroko measurement data, first requesting it from Ed Cook in 2003.  Cook refused. Though Oroko reconstructions have been used over the years in multiproxy studies and by IPCC, the underlying measurement data has never made archived  The…

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IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity: a demonstration

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Roger Taguchi, who often circulates fascinating emails on climatological physics, has sent me a beautifully simple and elegant demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity, turning a non-problem into a wolf-criers’ crisis. To assist in grasping the beauty of his brief but devastating argument, Fig. 1 shows the official climate-sensitivity equation:

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Fig. 1 The official climate-sensitivity equation. Equilibrium or post-feedback sensitivity ΔTeq is the product of pre-feedback sensitivity ΔTand the post-feedback gain factor G.

Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4: Fig. 2), while CO2 concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv. Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO2 concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K.

Even if CO2 were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60…

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The Unsinkable “Sinking Atolls” Meme

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I’ve written before about the study of Arthur Webb and Paul Kench regarding the fact that coral atolls are not being swallowed by rising seas. Their conclusion in that study was that the claims of sinking atolls were contradicted by the actual measurements of the islands in question. The measurements showed the islands were mostly either growing in size or staying the same (emphasis mine):

The results show that island area has remained largely stable or increased over the timeframe of analysis. Forty-three percent of islands increased in area by more than 3% with the largest increases of 30% on Betio (Tarawa atoll) and 28.3% on Funamanu (Funafuti atoll [the main atoll in Tuvalu – w.] ). There is no evidence of large scale reduction in island area despite the upward trend in sea level. Consequently, islands have predominantly been persistent or expanded in area on…

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