by Patrick J. Michaels
We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):
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Beyond Milankovitch
Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation
by Javier
Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-volume, and eccentricity, and they end at glacial inception after ~ 6000 years of Neoglaciation-type temperature decline. The lag between orbital forcing and ice volume change indicates the orbital threshold for glacial inception is crossed thousands of years before glacial inception, and the Holocene went through that threshold long ago. In the absence of sufficient anthropogenic forcing glacial inception should take place in 1500-2500 years. The long interglacial hypothesis rests on the wrong astronomical parameter, high-equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2, and uncertain model predictions of very long-tailed CO2decay. It is not possible to determine at present if…
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The debate: my presentation
by Judith Curry
My presentation is provided here. This is being posted at the start of the event.
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Models Wrong on Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response
A recent update to the LC15 paper published by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry in the Journal of Climate (“The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“) determines that “high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.”
In other words, the models predict way to much warming and do not match reality. More about the update here.
Figure 2 (based on Figure 4 of LC18) Estimated probability density functions for ECS and TCR using each main results period combination. Original GMST refers to use of the HadCRUT4v5 record; Infilled GMST refers to use of the Had4_krig_v2 record. Box plots show probability percentiles, accounting for probability beyond the range plotted: 5–95 (bars at line ends), 17–83 (box-ends) and 50 (bar in box: median). Lime green shading shows the AR5 ‘likely’ (17–83% or better) ranges.
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part III – 19th & 20th century observations
“As a result, we see that some ‘very likely’ and ‘likely’ conclusions from the AR4 and AR5 that are ‘very likely’ to be overturned by the AR6.” –Judith Curry
By Judith Curry
“We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk
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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part II – The geological record
By Judith Curry
Part II of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise –the geological record provides context for the recent sea level rise.
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