New Study Predicts Global Cooling until 2050

A new study by Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss published in The Open Atmospheric Science Journal earlier this year predicts that global temperatures will cool for the next 30 years. The study uses a large number of proxy data sets to create a global temperature mean they call G7 spanning the last 2000 years. Their harmonic analysis of G7 identifies three significant cycles with periods of  ~1000, ~460, and ~190 years. Using these three components alone shows a very strong Pearson correlation of .84 with the 31-year running average of G7. And the three-component curve exhibits all the major temperature extremes of the last 2000 years including the Roman, Medieval, and the current warm periods, as well as the 1450 minimum of the Little Ice Age. The paper also provides new proof that the ~190-year cycle is caused by the sun. The three-component temperature curve further predicts that global temperature will drop from the present to 2050, followed by a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from 2130 to 2200.

Fig. (2) (Color online) Left panels: Temperature records [oC] as anomalies around the mean, of Chr, Bün, McK, Vill-N, Vill-S, Pet, and the composite global record G7. The record of common production rate PC of the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, Stei, is depicted in panel row 4, column 2. Right panels: Pertinent Fourier spectra with false-alarm lines of 95% (green) and 99% (red). The period of the strongest peak (generally ~190 year) is given. 



Polar Bears, Inadequate data and Statistical Lipstick

Climate Audit


A recent paper Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy by JEFFREY A. HARVEY and 13 others has been creating somewhat of a stir in the blogosphere. The paper’s abstract purports to achieve the following:

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. *Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability.* By denying the impacts of AGW…

View original post 2,926 more words

Is climate change the culprit causing California’s wildfires?

Once again…climate change is not causing wildfires. Wildfires are down dramatically from the 1930s, and the small recent increase is due to forest management policies NOT climate change.

Climate Etc.

by Larry Kummer

We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications.

View original post 2,806 more words

A veneer of certainty stoking climate alarm

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

View original post 2,301 more words

New Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction

Climate Audit

Stenni et al (2017), Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, was published pdf this week by Climate of the Past.  It includes (multiple variations) of a new Antarctic temperature reconstruction, in which 112 d18O and dD isotope series are combined into regional and continental reconstructions. Its abstract warns that “projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts  of the Antarctic continent [besides the peninsula]”, but no Steigian red spots of supposedly unprecedented warming.

Long-time CA readers will be aware of my long-standing interest in Antarctic ice core proxies, in particular, the highly resolved Law Dome  d18O series.  One of my first appearances in Climategate emails was a request for Law Dome data to Tas van Ommen in Australia, who immediately notified Phil Jones in Sauron’s Tower of this disturbance in the equilibrium of…

View original post 1,358 more words

Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations

Climate Audit

Two very different representations of consistency between models and observations are popularly circulated. On the one hand, John Christy and Roy Spencer have frequently shown a graphic which purports to show a marked discrepancy between models and observations in tropical mid-troposphere, while, on the other hand, Zeke Hausfather, among others, have shown graphics which purport to show no discrepancy whatever between models and observations.  I’ve commented on this topic on a number of occasions over the years, including two posts discussing AR5 graphics (here, here) with an update comparison in 2016 (here) and in 2017 (tweet).

There are several moving parts in such comparisons: troposphere or surface, tropical or global. Choice of reference period affects the rhetorical impression of time series plots.  Boxplot comparisons of trends avoids this problem. I’ve presented such boxplots in the past and update for today’s post.

I’ll also…

View original post 1,022 more words

Steve Koonin: A Deceptive New Report on Climate

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.

View original post 1,047 more words