Another new paper confirms that the climate models are wrong, in a big way

ngeo2973-f1A just published paper in Nature Geoscience by Santer et al confirms, yet again, that the models are wrong,  have been wrong for decades, and they consistently, and substantially overestimate global warming. The paper concludes:

“Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%).”

It goes on to note that the problem is caused by “systematic deficiencies” in the model simulations. In other words, the models are wrong!


Consensus enforcers versus the Trump administration

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.

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Exiting the Mad Hatter’s climate tea party

Watts Up With That?

Trump was 100% right (not just 97%) to show real leadership and walk away from Paris

President Trump has rejected and exited the Paris climate treaty – walked America away from the Mad Hatter tea party that was the entire multi-decade, often hysterical and always computer model-driven UN climate process. My article this week explains why this bold move was the 100% right, ethical, moral and scientific thing to do: for the economic security of American workers and families … and the betterment of all mankind.

Guest essay by Paul Driessen

I can guess why a raven is like a writing-desk, Alice said. “Do you mean you think you can find out the answer?” said the March Hare. “Exactly so,” said Alice. “Then you should say what you mean,” the March Hare went on. “I do,” Alice replied. “At least I mean what I say. That’s the same thing…

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Exiting Paris agreement brings out emissions deception by mainstream media

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

President Trumps great and defining global decision to exit the flawed and unnecessary Paris climate agreement has driven the climate alarmist mainstream media (MSM) over the brink with articles frantically supporting that only government dictated mandates should be used to establish how global energy demand and use must be controlled.

An L. A. Times article for example falsely implies that state governments lead by California (OMG!!) must take command of future U.S. emissions performance and deliver Obama’s ill-advised emissions reduction promise that President Trump has now wisely decided to abandon.

The emissions reduction leadership role for California championed by the L A Times is touted despite the fact that our state doesn’t have the foggiest idea of how it can achieve its SB 32 emissions goals nor does it have any idea of how many tens of billions it will cost nor care at all…

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Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

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Scientist predicts new “Maunder minimum” that could herald a new mini ice age

Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University is predicting that from 2030-2040 the magnetic conditions on the sun will mimic the ‘Maunder minimum’ that occurred from 1645-1715 and produced the Little Ice Age. Read more about her presentation at the Royal Astronomical Society National Astronomy Meeting 2015 here.


Dialing back the 10 foot hype – NOAA Tide Gauge Data shows no coastal sea level rise acceleration

NOAA has just updated its coastal sea level rise tide gauge data including actual measurements through year 2016 which continues to show no evidence of coastal sea level rise acceleration.

Watts Up With That?

… meanwhile California sea level rise “model study” claims 10 foot rise by 2100

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

NOAA has just updated its coastal sea level rise tide gauge data including actual measurements through year 2016 which continues to show no evidence of coastal sea level rise acceleration.

These measurements include tide gauge data coastal locations for 25 West Coast, Gulf Coast and East Coast states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, 7 Pacific island groups and 6 Atlantic island groups comprising more than 200 measurement stations.

The longest NOAA tide gauge data coastal sea level rise measurement record is at The Battery in New York with its 160 year long data record showing a steady rate of sea level rise of about 11 inches per century.


NOAA data provides assessments of the 95% confidence intervals at all measured locations which demonstrate the consistent behavior…

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