Models Wrong on Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response

A recent update to the LC15 paper published by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry in the Journal of Climate (“The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“) determines that “high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.”

In other words, the models predict way to much warming and do not match reality. More about the update here.

nl_lc18_ecsandtcrpdfslikelyar5

Figure 2 (based on Figure 4 of LC18)  Estimated probability density functions for ECS and TCR using each main results period combination. Original GMST refers to use of the HadCRUT4v5 record; Infilled GMST refers to use of the Had4_krig_v2 record. Box plots show probability percentiles, accounting for probability beyond the range plotted: 5–95 (bars at line ends), 17–83 (box-ends) and 50 (bar in box: median). Lime green shading shows the AR5 ‘likely’ (17–83% or better) ranges.
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