Month: August 2016

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Recently I provided – based on a characteristically interesting email from Roger Taguchi – a demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity. In this follow-up piece, will you please welcome the global-warming exaggeration factor X.

First, a breathless recap on my summary of Roger’s argument. Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4), while CO₂ concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv (NCEI). Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO₂ concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K. Even if CO₂ were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60 = 1.38. Then, since nearly all temperature feedbacks are short-acting, at doubled CO₂ concentration and after all feedbacks had acted, equilibrium sensitivity ΔT_eq would be only 0.312 x 5.35 ln…

Guest essay by Andy May

Many writers, including Professor Richard Lindzen and Ed Caryl have noticed the remarkable similarity in global warming observed from around 1910 to 1944 and 1975 to 2009. The similarity in slopes exists in all global surface temperature datasets. Figure 1 shows the HadCRUT version 4 dataset and the NASA GISS land (GHCN v3) and ocean (ERSST v4) temperature dataset. We’ve identified the two periods of interest on the figure. All datasets also show some cooling between 1945 and 1975.

Figure 1

Figure 2 shows the two periods overlain with data from the HadCRUT version 4 dataset. This display is scaled to actual average temperature. Unlike Figure one this figure and the next one use smoothed monthly data. In that way, we can see some of the variation within each year.

Figure 2

The left side of Figure 2 represents 1910 for the blue line…

La Niña expected to contribute

From the Daily Star, 14 August 2016

Climate boffins believe the UK’s topsy-turvy climate is in for a chilly twist within the next few years as three major forms of climate change trigger “substantial cooling”.


Drastic changes in ocean conditions, greenhouse gases and a weakening of the sun threaten increasingly worsening winters of blistering blizzards and severe snowstorms for years to come.
This cocktail of climate threats, paired with “hasty climate policies”, could mean “rolling blackouts” in the UK over the next few years, plunging the country into long period of darkness.
These “worse case scenario” climate threats will hit the elderly hardest, leaving “some pensioners alone in the dark” on a freezing nights resigned to a “lonely death”.

An intense La Nina weather front could wreak havoc on the UK’s climate, photo Getty

It is thought these will be brought about for the most…

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Roger Taguchi, who often circulates fascinating emails on climatological physics, has sent me a beautifully simple and elegant demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity, turning a non-problem into a wolf-criers’ crisis. To assist in grasping the beauty of his brief but devastating argument, Fig. 1 shows the official climate-sensitivity equation:

Fig. 1 The official climate-sensitivity equation. Equilibrium or post-feedback sensitivity ΔT_eq is the product of pre-feedback sensitivity ΔTand the post-feedback gain factor G.

Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4: Fig. 2), while CO₂ concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv. Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO₂ concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K.

Even if CO₂ were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60…