Introducing the global-warming exaggeration factor X

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Recently I provided – based on a characteristically interesting email from Roger Taguchi – a demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity. In this follow-up piece, will you please welcome the global-warming exaggeration factor X.

First, a breathless recap on my summary of Roger’s argument. Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4), while CO₂ concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv (NCEI). Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO₂ concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K. Even if CO₂ were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60 = 1.38. Then, since nearly all temperature feedbacks are short-acting, at doubled CO₂ concentration and after all feedbacks had acted, equilibrium sensitivity ΔT_eq would be only 0.312 x 5.35 ln…