IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity: a demonstration

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Roger Taguchi, who often circulates fascinating emails on climatological physics, has sent me a beautifully simple and elegant demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity, turning a non-problem into a wolf-criers’ crisis. To assist in grasping the beauty of his brief but devastating argument, Fig. 1 shows the official climate-sensitivity equation:


Fig. 1 The official climate-sensitivity equation. Equilibrium or post-feedback sensitivity ΔTeq is the product of pre-feedback sensitivity ΔTand the post-feedback gain factor G.

Global temperature rose by 0.83 K from 1850-2016 (HadCRUT4: Fig. 2), while CO2 concentration rose from 280 to 400 ppmv. Officially-predicted pre-feedback sensitivity ΔT to this increase in CO2 concentration is thus 0.312 [5.35 ln (400/280)] = 0.60 K.

Even if CO2 were the sole cause of all the warming, the post-feedback gain factor G would be 0.83/0.60…

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