On the likelihood of recent record warmth

Source: On the likelihood of recent record warmth

Judith Curry’s conclusions regarding the much publicized paper by Mann et al. in Nature:

As I see it, this paper is a giant exercise in circular reasoning:

  1. Assume that the global surface temperature estimates are accurate; ignore the differences with the satellite atmospheric temperatures
  2. Assume that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can be used to accurately portray probabilities
  3. Assume that the CMIP5 models adequately simulate internal variability
  4. Assume that external forcing data is sufficiently certain
  5. Assume that the climate models are correct in explaining essentially 100% of the recent warming from CO2

In order for Mann et al.’s analysis to work, you have to buy each of these 5 assumptions; each of these is questionable to varying degrees.

The Fraud Couldn’t Be Clearer

Real Science


2015 was the most fraudulent year on record at the White House. Their claim is utter nonsense.

NASA’s surface temperature record shows 1.6C warming since the 1880’s, and 0.8C warming during the century from 1880 to 1980.


Their 1981 version of the same graph only shows a little over half that much warming from 1880 to 1980.



The next graph overlays the two above at the same scale, normalized to the late 1970’s. NASA has massively cooled the past, far outside of their own error bars.


They added about 0.3C warming prior to 1980 by altering the data, and show another 0.2C warming since 2001, during a time when satellites show cooling.

Screenshot 2016-01-26 at 07.40.10 AM

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Most of their surface temperatures are fake. There are vast areas of land with little or no temperature readings, and many of the thermometers they do have are contaminated by urban heat island effects.



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The IPCC models are bad…really bad

As the desperate rhetoric of politicians and politically motivated, government funded scientists continues to heat up, the scientific data is keeping a cooler head. Despite two and a half decades of wildly incorrect climate change predictions from the likes of the IPCC, NASA, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and various other alarmist champions, the climate is a stubborn thing.  READ MORE…

Study Shows Large Bias in NOAA US Land Temperature Data

In a study presented at the American Geophysical Union on December 17, 2015, Watts et al showed that the land-based meteorological sites used for measuring temperature in the continental United States (CONUS) yield more than 50% bias in the 30-year trend for temperature change.  READ MORE…

Climate Models Wrong Again

The latest version of HadCRUT4 (a collaborative product of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia), one of the major ground-based global temperature sets, is significantly and obviously diverging from the projections made by the CMIP5 computer models, which are featured prominently in the IPCC AR5 published in 2013-14.  READ MORE…

El Niño has peaked, not as strong as 1997-98

The latest data indicate it is likely that the current El Niño has peaked and that while similar to the 1997-98 El Niño, it is not quite as strong either 1997-98 or 1982-83. READ MORE…

Lies, damned lies, and statistics: US Wildfires

You may have seen this graph or similar ones promulgated by the Environmental Protection Agency purporting to show a dramatic increase in US Wildfire damage since 1983. READ MORE…

The ‘Pause’ Continues: 2015 Cooler than 2010 and 1998

As expected, 2015 came in a distant third place to 2010 and 1998 for warmest year on record, according to the latest lower troposphere temperature data from both Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama at Huntsville, the two independent organizations that maintain and report on satellite temperature data. READ MORE…

20th Century Global Temps Likely Within Natural Variation

UN IPCC Lead Author Philip J. Lloyd published the results of a new study in Energy & Environment Vol. 26, No. 3 (May 2015) in which he concludes that “while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations.”  READ MORE…

Obama Wrong About Extreme Weather

In his Weekly Address titled “Confronting the Growing Threat of Climate Change” on June 29, 2013, President Obama said,

“And while we know no single weather event is caused solely by climate change, we also know that in a world that’s getting warmer than it used to be, all weather events are affected by it – more extreme droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes.”

Why does Obama spread fear and misinformation while proposing drastic policy initiatives costing hundreds of billions of dollars, all the while relying on false statements that are directly contradicted by the science? READ MORE…