Colossal Antarctic ice-shelf collapse followed last ice age

Watts Up With That?

From the “things Earth does without our help” department:

Study: 100,000 square miles of Ross Ice Shelf disappeared in 1,500 years

From RICE UNIVERSITY

HOUSTON — (Feb. 18, 2016) — In a new study that provides clues about how Antarctica’s nation-sized Ross Ice Shelf might respond to a warming climate, U.S. and Japanese oceanographers have shown that a 100,000-square-mile section of the ice shelf broke apart within 1,500 years during a warming period after the last ice age.

The Ross Ice Shelf is the world’s largest ice shelf, a vast floating extension of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is about the size of France. But at the end of the last ice age, it extended much farther north and covered the entire Ross Sea.

A study in this week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences details how the ice shelf shrank during a period of climate warming following…

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IPCC Lead Author: No IPCC Model Has Ever Successfully Predicted the Future

Bill Frezza interviews Richard Lindzen on Real Clear Radio Hour on February 12, 2016. Atmospheric physicist and MIT Professor Emeritus Richard Lindzen was the lead author of the “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks” chapter of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Lindzen attributes climate hype to politics, money, and propaganda particularly taking issue with the “97% consensus” claim that is being used to stifle debate and demonize skeptics.

READ MORE…

CO2 Making the Earth Greener

Recent satellite records have revealed a global greening process over drylands, but to date, the reasons for this greening have been somewhat of a mystery. A new study just published on nature.com on February 12, 2016 by authors Xuefei Wang, Lixin Wang and Matthew F. McCabe concludes that

…higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 induce plant water saving and that consequent available soil water increases are a likely driver of the observed greening phenomena.

READ MORE…

A Short History of Climatism in Google Ngrams

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Ari Halperin

Google Books Ngrams tracks how frequently certain words and short phrases appeared in printed books from 1800 through 2008. Such data may serve as an indication of public interest in a specific topic, subject to obvious limitations, which makes Google Ngrams a useful tool for historical research. One should keep in mind that books related to a particular event are likely to appear 0.5 – 2 years after the event.

I used Google Ngrams for a short inquiry into the history of climate alarmism. The inquiry confirmed what old skeptics have been saying all the time, and provided a more solid basis to some anecdotal evidence. Here’s a summary of my findings:

1. The alarmists first declared “scientific consensus” in 1988, and have been digging their heels in, persecuting skeptics, and constantly suppressing scientific inquiry since then, just as Richard Lindzen reported in 1992

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The Total Failure of the IPCC’s Much Vaunted CMIP5 Climate Models

Bob Tisdale’s latest analysis of the models versus reality across the global oceans is as clear as can be. The IPCC’s much vaunted and relied upon CMIP5 climate models do NOT represent the world in which we live. Not even close. Here is his summary conclusion, for all the graphs, explanations, and numerical details see the original post from his blog below…

We live on an ocean-covered planet. One might have thought that one of the climate modelers’ first priorities would have been to simulate the processes that cause sea surface temperatures to vary on annual, decadal and multidecadal bases. Sadly, the modelers elected another route…they chose to create models of a planet that bear no relationship to the one where we live, no relationship at all.

Climate model simulations of sea surface temperatures are far from reality. That is, they’re modeling a virtual planet—a science-fiction planet—with no similarities to Earth. More specifically, as shown in this series of posts, the climate models used by the IPCC do not simulate (1) the actual warming and cooling rates of the ocean surfaces, or (2) the spatial patterns of those trends, or (3) the absolute temperatures. It would be nice if climate modeling agencies might try to simulate the surface temperatures of this planet, not some fairytale one. That way, their models might have some value. Right now, they don’t serve any purpose…other than to illustrate how poorly they simulate Earth’s climate.

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

This post will serve as part 2 of the 2015 update of the model-data comparisons of satellite-era sea surface temperatures. The 2014 update is here. This, the second part, contains time-series graphs.  But the data and model outputs are being presented in absolute, not anomaly, form.

INTRODUCTION

The climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are not simulating climate as it exists on Earth.  That reality of climate models will likely come as a surprise to many climate laypersons.

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Study proves urban heat islands exist, even in the Arctic

Watts Up With That?

From the “we told you so years ago” department comes this interesting study that might explain the 8 °C red spot in the Russian Arctic that NASA GISS always seems to have:

From Science News:

A novel form of the “urban heat island” effect might contribute to why the far north is warming faster than the rest of the globe, a study of five Arctic cities finds.

Sunlight can heat dense building materials. When night falls, buildings will release some of their solar energy into the air. This helps explain why urban centers tend to be a few degrees warmer than nearby rural areas.

“We decided that our Russian Arctic cities should also show this phenomenon,” says Mikhail Varentsov, a climatologist at Lomonosov Moscow State University. But indoor heating — not the sun — would be the major heat source, at least in winter, when the sun shines little…

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Wide Misuse of Land + Sea Surface Temperature

Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures. These are typically derived by weighting a global land average and global SST average according to the 30:70 land-sea geographical surface area ratio. However, there is very little consideration of whether such a result has any physical meaning and what, if anything, it means.

One thing it does not represent is a metric of global surface heat content. However, this is one of the most common uses for such data.

climategrog

Introduction

Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures. These are typically derived by weighting a global land average and global SST average according to the 30:70 land-sea geographical surface area ratio. However, there is very little consideration of whether such a result has any physical meaning and what, if anything, it means.

One thing it does not represent is a metric of global surface heat content. However, this is ( often implicitly ) one of the most common uses for such data.

Temperatures don’t add !

In technical terms, temperature is not an extensive quantity. That is illustrated by the fact that if you have one bucket of water at 30 degrees Celsius and you add another bucket of water at 30 degrees Celsius, you do not end up with water at…

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El Ninõ and La Niña Driving Global Sea Surface Temperatures, Not Man-made Global Warming

Bob Tisdale updates us with his brilliant and very clear analysis of global sea surface temperature trends.

“…the sea surface temperature record indicates El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 32 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. Scroll back up to the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest of the World. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.”

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for January 2016.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.

00 Map

January 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.45 deg C)

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George Washington’s winters

by Judith Curry

Frozen rivers, knee-deep snows, sleet, frigid temperatures, and other winter miseries helped shape the story of George Washington’s life.

Source: George Washington’s winters

So my question is this. Why are we defining ‘dangerous climate change’ with respect to the climate of the 18th century, which was the coldest period in the last millennia, with wicked winters? Why not use a reference point of 2000 or 1970? The IPCC doesn’t provide a convincing explanation for the overall warming between 1750 and 1950; according to climate models, human causes contributed only a very small amount to the global warming to during this period (so presumably this overall warming was caused by natural climate variability). Co-opting the period between 1750 and 1950 into the AGW argument muddies the scientific and the policy waters.

A primer on the state of Climate Change Science

Anyone interested in a science-based understanding of Climate Change and the current state of the science, should read Dr. John R. Christy’s testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology from yesterday.